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2026

October 2026

What this doesn't show

Open page 15 in the dossier
  • Correlation is not quid pro quo. Palantir and Anduril growth began under Biden: Anduril nearly tripled from FY2023 to FY2024, and Palantir grew 55%. The Maven and ICE contracts predate Trump 2.0.
  • Sole-source can be legitimate. FAR 6.302-1 covers proprietary software that only one vendor can supply. Consolidating existing licences is plausibly cheaper, as the Army claims.
  • The biggest donor isn't the biggest grower. SpaceX's standard contracts were flat despite Musk's roughly $290M, though Golden Dome changes the 2026–28 picture. Palantir's executives gave little (under $8M) relative to roughly $3B in obligations.
  • Industry-wide shift. Donations went to many GOP vehicles and some Democrats (Karp to Harris in 2023; Horowitz to BlackPAC). This looks like an industry hedging and buying access across the board, not a single deal.
  • Data limits. OTAs, classified awards, subcontracts and state/local contracts are missing. FEC data is itemized and capped at the top 100 records per person.