Contract flows (USAspending obligations, $M)

Findings:

1. Palantir's federal contract obligations roughly doubled each year: $541M in FY2024, $1.02B in FY2025, $1.98B in FY2026. That's 3.7× the Biden-era FY2024 baseline [V]. 2. The Army Enterprise Agreement (W519TC-25-D-0039, 31 July 2025, ceiling $10B over 10 years) consolidated 75 contracts. DoD's announcement says: "Bids were solicited via the internet with one received" (war.gov contracts, 1 Aug 2025, Army) [V-s]. The $10B is a ceiling, not an obligation. - Task orders under it are coded "NOT COMPETED – ONLY ONE SOURCE (FAR 6.302-1)" in USAspending [V]: - $637.6M for the CDAO Maven Smart System, Oct 2025 - $145.0M for Army Vantage, Dec 2025 - $114.8M for FORSCOM, Aug 2025 - By contrast, Palantir's Air Force data platform ($116M, 7 offers) and USDA farm-IT ($94.7M) orders were competed. 3. Anduril roughly doubled in FY2026 to $1.11B. Its largest awards since the inauguration are mixed: - Competed: CBP border towers, $363M (Dec 2025), "full and open after exclusion of sources." - Sole-source: JIATF-401 Lattice licences, $142M (Mar 2026), and Navy Altius-600M loitering munitions, $94M (Feb 2025, 1 offer) [V]. 4. SpaceX was flat at about $3B a year in standard contracts, before Golden Dome: - Space-based tracking (SB-AMTI): $4.16B, 29 May 2026. - Space Data Network backbone: $2.29B, 26 May 2026. - Together about $6.45B (Bloomberg, AeroMorning) [V-s]. - SpaceX and Anduril are also among 12 firms on 20 space-based interceptor awards worth up to $3.2B (Air & Space Forces) [V-s]. - Reuters reports Anduril and Palantir are building Golden Dome software (Reuters, Mar 2026) [V-s]. - Many Golden Dome awards are OTAs and don't appear in the USAspending numbers above. 5. Frontier AI: CDAO gave Anthropic, Google, OpenAI and xAI awards with a "$200M ceiling" each (14 July 2025) (ai.mil). GSA then gave xAI a OneGov deal at $0.42 per agency for 18 months (GSA) [V-s]. Neither OpenAI nor xAI shows up as a recipient of standard contracts in USAspending. The "XAI" matches are unrelated firms (Exail, Xairos), so the awards are OTAs or not yet reported [V]. 6. Axon/Carbyne: Axon is small and steady ($73–149M a year). ICE's July 2026 body-camera orders ($17.8M + $13.1M) are sole-source. Carbyne has no direct federal contracts in USAspending; its contracts were state and local (Miami Herald) [V].