October 2026
6.7 Thesis-test table (v9)
| Claim | Evidence | Verdict | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Master shows Bolsonaro-family ties to a fraudulent bank | Flávio's "Dark Horse" money (at least R$61m; under investigation). The Zettel R$3m donation. The PF's Havengate hypothesis on Eduardo (denied) | Supported (documented ties; criminal liability not established) | Câmara, g1, BBC, Folha |
| Master is a far-right scheme | The ties run through the Centrão, MDB, PL, the PT orbit and the STF | Unsupported as framed (cross-party patronage) | Folha, Bloomberg Línea |
| The Bolsonaro movement endangered Brazilian democracy | Final coup conviction (27y3m); Eduardo convicted for coercion via foreign sanctions | Supported (court judgments, contested by the defendants) | STF |
| The US acted to shield Bolsonaro | Tariff letter and EO citing "persecution" (and Figueiredo), Magnitsky sanctions. The 21-demand election clause. Lifted Dec 2025, then partly revived (sanction threats, Abin "critical") | Supported, transactional and reversible | White House, BBC, Estadão, Folha |
| US pressure is aimed at resources | The written US demand for priority over Brazilian mineral-asset sales (Oct 2025) and the anti-China mining clause (Jan 2026). The Pentagon/DFC lock on Serra Verde output. Abin's reading. But Section 301's grounds are payments, digital trade and ethanol | Supported in part. Resources are an explicit, documented aim alongside payments and Big Tech (v8: "partly") | Estadão, SEC 8-K, USTR |
| Far-right alignment is traded for resource access | Flávio's CPAC offer ("America's solution"). A campaign-branded minerals deck (author denies any campaign link). Rockbridge Brazil LLC alongside the campaign (denied; no money shown). Caiado's state MoU. The regional sequence (Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela). No signed quid pro quo; the US also extracted the DFC/offtake deal under Lula | Partly, with direct evidence that the US linked minerals to Brazilian political conditions | Estadão, Nexo, CNN Brasil, Folha, State Dept |
| Oil is the motive in Brazil | Equatorial Margin drilling was licensed by the Lula government; Petrobras is a state company | Unsupported for Brazil | Valor, g1 |
| Oil is the motive in Venezuela | After Maduro's capture, a 100-year (disputed) concession deal with a 35% US Department of War stake and cost-price off-take | Supported | White House fact sheet |
| Christian Zionist evangelicals are a backing force | 52–62% of the evangelical vote for Flávio, a large FPE, documented Christian Zionism among leaders. But a third back Lula, and the embassy pledge was dropped for agribusiness interests | Partly (leadership-level ideology and electoral weight; ideology gives way to material interests in policy) | Datafolha, SciELO, g1 |
| A coordinated transnational far-right network exists | Bannon's Movement, CPAC, the Madrid Charter, Atlas, Rockbridge's Brazilian attempt | Supported (as a network, not a command structure) | CEBRI, Pública, Folha |