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2026

October 2026

6.2 Bolsonaro family and democracy

[V][V-s]Open page 29 in the dossier

  • Jair Bolsonaro:

    • Conviction: STF First Panel, Sept 2025 (AP 2668): 27 years 3 months, closed regime to start. The STF judged 31 defendants across four cases: 29 convicted, 2 acquitted. Ramagem is a fugitive in the US. The conviction became final on 25 Nov 2025. [V] STF; Folha
    • Custody history:
    • Aug 2025: preventive house arrest.
    • 22 Nov 2025: house arrest revoked and moved to the PF Superintendency. Reasons cited: a vigil called by Flávio was seen as facilitating flight, and he tried to remove his ankle monitor.
    • 15 Jan 2026: moved to "Papudinha" (19th Military Police Battalion).
    • 13 Mar 2026: hospitalised with aspiration bronchopneumonia.
    • 24 Mar 2026: Moraes grants temporary humanitarian house arrest for 90 days from discharge, with the PGR in favour and a reassessment due afterwards. As of late July 2026 he was still in house arrest (Valor). Whether it was formally extended after 90 days was not found.

    [V] STF, 24 Mar 2026; [V] BBC Brasil; [V] Valor

  • Sentence-reduction bill ("Dosimetria"): the Chamber passed it on 10 Dec 2025. Lula vetoed it, Congress overrode the veto, and Moraes suspended its application. [V] BBC Brasil; [V] Gazeta do Povo

  • US pressure and partial retreat:

    • 9 Jul 2025: Trump's 50% tariff letter.
    • 30 Jul 2025: EO 14323 declares a national emergency (an extra 40%, 50% total). The fact sheet names Paulo Figueiredo as a US resident prosecuted for speech on US soil. [V-s] White House; g1
    • Magnitsky sanctions: Moraes (Jul) and his wife (Sept 2025).
    • Retreat: Trump praised Lula at the UN (Sept 2025) and suspended the 40% farm tariffs (20 Nov 2025). The Treasury lifted the sanctions on 12 Dec 2025, calling them "inconsistent with US foreign-policy interests". This came a day after Deputy Secretary Landau praised the Chamber's Dosimetria vote. [V] BBC Brasil
    • The US Supreme Court later struck down the IEEPA order. Trump renewed the emergency anyway on 28 Jul 2026, with no practical effect. Brazil now faces 25% (Section 301) and 12.5% (forced-labour allegations). [V] Valor, 29 Jul 2026
    • After talks failed, Trump said he "doesn't care" about Lula, whom he called "volatile". The US also warned of individual sanctions after Brazil refused visas to US electoral "observers". [V] Gazeta do Povo. The Washington Post reported a US plan to send aides who would cast doubt on the election's integrity; Itamaraty refused visas to two State Department staff, and the US denied any intent to interfere. [V] (as reported in Folha Ilustríssima)

  • Eduardo Bolsonaro:

    • Moved to the US in Feb/Mar 2025; his leave ended 21 Jul 2025.
    • Lost his seat on 18 Dec 2025 (Mesa Act No. 229, for missing a third of sessions; he missed 63 of 78). [V] Câmara Mesa Act; [V] Câmara
    • Convicted unanimously by the STF First Panel on 16 Jun 2026 (AP 2782) of coercion in the course of proceedings: 4 years 2 months, semi-open regime, 50 day-fines, ineligibility until 8 years after the sentence is served, and loss of his PF clerk post. [V] STF
    • Final on 3 Oct 2026, with execution ordered. [V-s] (ConJur PDF blocked, 403)

  • Paulo Figueiredo (commentator, Eduardo's partner in the US lobbying):

    • Charged by the PGR in the coup case but not yet a defendant: the STF is awaiting a US reply to a letter rogatory (pending 10+ months as of Aug 2026). [V-s] EM
    • About R$4.9–5m in the federal tax-debt register from 2020 Lava Jato "Armadeira 2" assessments, which he says were wrongly issued. [V-s] Estadão
    • Bought a US$1.2m house in Clermont, FL, in Nov 2025, saying it is financed. [V-s] Agência Pública/ICL

  • The 26 May 2026 photo-op: Flávio, Eduardo and Figueiredo went to the Oval Office. The meeting was off the official schedule and arranged by Eduardo with Trump's "ideological wing". Sources say it was brief: documents went to aides, then a photo with Trump seated, the visitors standing. Flávio asked Trump to designate PCC and CV as terrorist organisations. He met Vance and Rubio the next day. The real photos showed no AI traces (Aos Fatos), but a viral "seated" image was AI-generated (SynthID; g1 Fato ou Fake). [V] g1; [V] Aos Fatos; [V] g1 Fato ou Fake

  • The Abin assessment (as an assessment, not a finding):

    • Report: a confidential Abin report, "Ameaças ao processo eleitoral de 2026", sent in late Aug to the Presidency, TSE and Justice Ministry. It raised the possibility of US influence or interference to a "nível de criticidade". It describes "selective intensification and reconfiguration of US pressure… without rupture of an existing structural pattern", with escalation "since May".
    • US aims, per Abin: citing US documents (Nov 2025–May 2026), Abin says Trump's aims are to deny rival powers "access to strategic assets, natural riches and infrastructure in the region, in favour of their control, direct or indirect, by the US government or US private capital".
    • PCC sanctions: Abin calls the July 2026 US sanctions on 2 Brazilians, 3 Brazil-based firms and 1 Portuguese firm over PCC money laundering "a change of phase". Pressure now "falls directly on financial relations, business reputation, access to the dollar… secondary sanctions".
    • Caveats: Abin does not allege vote manipulation, and the TSE had seen "no concrete signs" of interference.

    Revealed by Mônica Bergamo (Folha, 19 Sept 2026). [V] Folha; [V] InfoMoney; [V] Opera Mundi

  • 2026 election (TSE): first round 4 Oct: Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 47.03%, Lula (PT) 45.16%, Cury 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.24%, Caiado 2.18%. Runoff on 25 Oct. Tarcísio did not run. [V] TSE (text read via search; direct fetch 403)