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2026

October 2026

7.2 Alignment map (17 Oct 2026)

[U][V][V-s]Open page 38 in the dossier
Country / leader US security, minerals, trade Israel-related moves (documented) Evangelical role (documented)
Argentina, Milei Shield of the Americas member [V, Wikipedia]. Critical-minerals framework, 4 Feb 2026 [V, State]. Reciprocal Trade and Investment Agreement, 5 Feb 2026 [V-s, Reuters 401]. Pax Silica [V, BNamericas]. Jerusalem embassy promised, not open. Promised in the Knesset (Jun 2025) for 2026, then frozen in Jan 2026 over a Falklands drilling dispute [V-s, Ynet/Channel 12]. On 19 Apr 2026 Milei said it would move "apenas las condiciones lo permitan" and launched the Isaac Accords [V, Bloomberg Línea]. Still not open as of 14 Oct [V, Garúa]. Hezbollah and Hamas designated; IHRA member since 2020 [V, Isaac Accords chart]. No organised evangelical bloc behind Milei documented [U]
Ecuador, Noboa Shield [V]. Minerals MoU, 4 Feb 2026 [V, State]. The Nov 2025 referendum on foreign bases failed [V-s, Reuters 401]. Hezbollah and Hamas designated [V, chart]; IRGC too (Sept 2025) [V-s, FDD 403]. Embassy remains in Tel Aviv. [U]
Paraguay, Peña Shield [V]. Minerals MoU, 4 Feb 2026 [V, State]. SOFA signed 15 Dec 2025, in force 17 Mar 2026 [V, treaty header]; "temporary personnel, no bases" [V-s, scanned body]. USTDA backs X8 Cloud on Itaipú power. Signed the AI Opportunities Declaration but not Pax Silica [V, BNamericas]. Embassy in Jerusalem [V, Semana]. Hezbollah and Hamas designated [V, chart]. 8th IHRA adopter in the region [V-s, i24]. [U]
El Salvador, Bukele Shield [V]. Reciprocal trade agreement signed 29 Jan 2026; its digital-trade chapter bars digital-services taxes on US firms [V, USTR]. Pax Silica [V, BNamericas]. No embassy move or designation. Israel closed its embassy in San Salvador for budget reasons. The ambassador, resident in Guatemala, calls El Salvador "100% amigo" [V, Diario El Mundo]. Bukele condemned Hamas on 8 Oct 2023 [V, same]. He was an "early adopter" of warmer ties [V, DW]. Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas designated [V, chart]. [U]
Bolivia, Rodrigo Paz Shield [V]. Relations with Israel restored in Dec 2025 [V-s, AP 403]. The US asked it to designate Hezbollah and Hamas (Jan 2026), with the same push planned for Chile, Panama and Peru [V, La República]. Not done. [U]
Chile, Kast (58.17%, 7,263,236 votes) Shield [V]. Minerals and security agreements, 20 Apr 2026 [V-s, Reuters 401]. Pax Silica [V]. Ambassador Gabriel Zaliasnik presented credentials on 3 Aug 2026 [V, JNS]. Evangelical leaders and the party-in-formation United in Faith endorsed Kast in 2017 [V, Boas]. 2026 data [U].
Honduras, Asfura Trump endorsed him. Trump pardoned ex-president Juan Orlando Hernández, who had been convicted in the US of drug trafficking, during the disputed count [V-s, Reuters 401]. Shield [V]. Embassy already in Jerusalem [V, Semana]. Ambassador Núñez Bennet presented credentials on 3 Aug 2026 [V, JNS]. Hezbollah designated [V, chart]. [V-s]
Peru, Fujimori Shield: joined about 10 Sept 2026, after a Rubio visit [V, Wikipedia table citing Reuters]. Earlier "early August" (Newsweek) is wrong. Minerals MoU signed 4 Feb 2026 under the previous government [V, State]. US AI MoU (Sept 2026), signed by PM Galarreta and Ambassador Navarro: Peru commits to importing and adopting US AI technology [V, BNamericas]. Calls with Herzog and Saar; Israel "not yet a priority" [V, TRT]. Israel's ambassador attended the inauguration [V, AJN]. No embassy move or terror designation. Evangelical-Fujimorismo tie is historical (1990) [V, Boas]
Colombia, De la Espriella Shield; its accession took membership to 19 including the US [V, Wikipedia]. Minerals and civil-nuclear MoUs (8 Sept 2026) [V-s, v9 §6.4]. USTDA hyperscale study [V, USTDA]. Jerusalem embassy (14 Oct); FTA reinstated (13 Oct) [V]. Hezbollah (2020), IRGC (24 Sept 2026); not Hamas [V]. IHRA adopted 2022 [V, chart]. "Strong base"; no vote share measured [V, Baylor]
Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez (interim, after the US captured Maduro, 3 Jan 2026) NABEP oil deal; the US Department of War holds 35% of the private intermediary [V, v9 §6.4]. Consular ties only (11 Aug 2026), after a 17-year break [V-s, Reuters 401]. [U]
Brazil, Lula (runoff 25 Oct vs Flávio) Not in the Shield. Section 301 tariff; refused the 21 demands [V, v9]. But it attended the 4 Feb Critical Minerals Ministerial (no MoU) [V, State]. Lula's government is critical of Israel. No ambassador in Israel since May 2024 [V, CNN Brasil]. IHRA status contested: the Isaac Accords chart says Brazil "withdrew adoption and Observer Country Status in 2025", while the CAM site still lists Brazil as an adopter [V both; status U]. Flávio pledged accession to the Isaac Accords and an embassy move in 2027 (see 7.3) [V]. Evangelicals 52–62% for Flávio (Datafolha) [V, v9]
Mexico (Sheinbaum), Uruguay (Orsi) Not in the Shield [V, Al Jazeera]. Mexico attended the minerals ministerial [V, State]. Uruguay is an IHRA observer (2020) [V, chart]. —

Sources for the table: